Prediction Markets Hit $40B - But Can They Be Trusted?

Hey FinTech Fanatic!

Prediction markets are attracting serious money, but the latest headlines show both sides of the story. Kalshi has raised another $1 billion, pushing its valuation to $40 billion, while rival Polymarket has had to halt trading after hackers stole funds from some users. One market is scaling fast; the other is dealing with a security incident.

Let’s start with Kalshi. The company’s valuation has jumped from $22 billion just five months ago, with Sequoia and Wellington co-leading the latest round. But Kalshi isn’t stopping at betting on elections and sports-related events. It’s expanding into a broader trading platform, offering perpetual futures on crypto, equity indexes and metals, putting it on a collision course with traditional exchanges.

Polymarket, meanwhile, faced a very different kind of test. A hack involving a third-party provider led to unauthorized withdrawals from some users’ wallets on its international platform. The company paused trading, fixed the issue, and said it would reimburse affected users, referring the incident to UK law enforcement. Its US platform was not affected, and trading on the international platform has since resumed.

Put these stories together, and you get a snapshot of an industry at a turning point. Capital is pouring in, products are expanding, and prediction markets are moving closer to mainstream finance. But as the stakes grow, so do the questions around security, regulation and consumer protection.

Anyway, plenty more happened in FinTech today.

Let’s dive in, and I’ll be back in your inbox on Monday!

Cheers,

Marcel

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Come for the run, stay for the conversations, and bring a friend along! Save your spot. See you there! 🙌 

INSIGHTS

💡 Triple-A: Why are more businesses turning to stablecoin payments? Chief Commercial Officer Kailash Madan explains how merchants can accept USDC and USDT while receiving payments in fiat, with transaction costs around 1% compared to 3–4% for credit cards. From cross-border trade to gaming and capital markets, he also shares why stablecoins could become a natural fit for AI-powered transactions.

FINTECH NEWS

🇺🇸 Mastercard third-quarter net revenue rises 14% to $9.8B. Net income reached $4.6B, with diluted EPS of $5.28, or $5.31 adjusted. Gross dollar volume rose 7%, cross-border volume increased 11%, and purchase volume grew 9% in local currency.

🇩🇪 Upvest and Franklin Templeton support Finanzguru retirement investment offering. The companies are working on the infrastructure and investments for Finanzguru’s planned German retirement account proposition. The retirement investment collaboration brings together investment technology, asset management and an established personal finance application.

🇪🇺 Gilion surpasses €200 million in growth financing deployed across Europe. The Swedish growth lender reports that its loan book has doubled annually since 2021, while its latest €50 million in financing was deployed in half the time of the preceding €50 million. In its latest lending milestone update, Gilion also reported a 300% increase in revenue per full-time employee over two years and outlined plans to deploy another €200 million in 2027.

🇮🇳 Pine Labs' second quarter profit jumps more than sixfold to 385.7M rupees. Revenue rose 24% to 8.06B rupees as digital checkout points grew 49% YoY. It stands to benefit from a proposed 0.4% UPI merchant charge above 2,000 rupees.

#FINTECHREPORT

💡Adyen Q3 2026: Revenue Rises 23% as Investment Accelerates. Adyen reported €738.1 million in net revenue (+23% YoY) and €451.1 billion in payment volume (+30%), with its Platforms segment leading revenue growth at 46%. Acquisitions Talon.One and Orb are expanding Adyen’s offering into loyalty, customer engagement and usage-based billing, while partnerships in AI commerce and the digital euro point to further ambitions beyond payments. However, the company expects an EBITDA margin of around 50% as it accelerates investment. The key question is whether these investments can deliver enough additional growth to support stronger profitability over the longer term. Read the full analysis here 

PAYMENTS NEWS

🌍 Checkout.com introduces Visa Payment Passkey for merchants globally. The payment provider is adding Visa’s passkey-based authentication option for merchants, allowing eligible cardholders to verify transactions without passwords. Its global merchant integration is designed to streamline checkout authentication.

🇳🇬 Mastercard and Interswitch support Google Pay rollout in Nigeria, with ProvidusUnity Bank enabling access. Eligible Mastercard cardholders can make contactless payments using compatible Android devices. Mastercard and Interswitch provide tokenisation and processing infrastructure, while ProvidusUnity Bank has enabled its eligible customers to use Google Pay for contactless and online transactions.

💳 Citi and American Airlines refresh AAdvantage. Mastercard benefits The Platinum Select and Business cards will gain new rewards categories and travel benefits from 24 January 2027, with annual fees rising to $150. The updated card benefits include additional miles on qualifying hotel and car bookings and selected spending.

🌎 Shopify adds card-network agentic payment technology to Shop Pay. Visa, Mastercard and American Express payment tokens are being incorporated into Shopify’s checkout, allowing authorised AI agents to use cards without seeing underlying credentials. The agentic checkout integration retains card-network payment protections and rewards.

🇦🇪 Botim launches Jaywan prepaid card in the UAE. The FinTech has introduced a prepaid product using the UAE’s national payment card scheme, initially targeting more than 200,000 workers. Its Jaywan card programme is intended to broaden access to domestic card payments for expatriate employees.

🇺🇸 American Express lets Cash Back Card Members redeem rewards into savings and checking accounts. Consumer members can deposit Reward Dollars into an HYSA at a 1:1 rate. Graphite Business Cash Unlimited members can also fund Business Checking.

🌍 Grey introduces Paycheck for cross-border salary earners. The African payments FinTech has launched a salary-focused account product for professionals receiving income in dollars, pounds and euros. Its new Paycheck offering combines salary receipt and management with benefits for qualifying users, including higher transaction limits and priority support.

DIGITAL BANKING NEWS

🇺🇸 Galaxy applies for US national trust bank charter. The company has applied to the OCC to establish Galaxy National Bank in New York. If approved, the federally regulated institution would offer digital asset custody, trading, staking and investment advisory services. 

🇵🇭 Maya targets a 2027 initial public offering. PLDT chairman Manuel V. Pangilinan has expressed a preference for a Philippine listing alongside any overseas offering. The planned flotation timeline follows an earlier 2026 target, with the final listing structure yet to be agreed.

🇳🇱 ING plans 400 job cuts after quarterly profit misses forecasts. The Dutch bank reported third-quarter net profit of €1.85 billion, below analysts’ €1.97 billion estimate, and announced a €1.65 billion share buyback. Its wholesale banking reorganisation will involve approximately 400 redundancies.

🇦🇪 Mashreq's profit before tax rises 18% to a record AED 7.3B. Operating income rose 11% to AED 10.4B, while capital adequacy stood at 16.7%. Total assets surpassed AED 400B as customer lending grew 33% YoY. Read more

🇧🇷 Patrick Dempsey stars in Nubank Ultravioleta's new motorsport campaign. The Nubank Creative Hub developed the campaign with production company Stink. It ties Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team support to an account that anticipates customer needs. Keep reading

ARTICLE OF THE DAY

💡 Incognia: Can banks spot a scam even when the customer authorises the payment? Incognia's new Real-Time Scam Prevention solution uses device and location intelligence to identify suspicious connections between senders and recipients. In an analysis of transactions from a bank with over 80 million active users, it identified around 70% of scam transactions. Product Manager Luis Medeiros explains how these real-world signals can help banks intervene before money moves.

BLOCKCHAIN/CRYPTO NEWS

🇧🇷 Ripio files for Brazilian virtual asset and foreign exchange licences. The crypto platform has applied to Brazil’s central bank for authorisation covering virtual asset brokerage and custody, as well as foreign exchange operations. Its regulatory authorisation applications are pending while the company continues serving existing customers.

🇺🇸 Polymarket resumes international trading after third-party security breach. The prediction-market platform temporarily halted trading after a compromised external provider was linked to unauthorised withdrawals from users' wallets. Trading has since resumed, and Polymarket has pledged to reimburse affected users and referred the incident to UK law enforcement.

📈 Payward’s xStocks passes $1 billion in assets under management. The tokenised equities framework reached the figure on 27 October and now covers more than 1,500 stock, ETF and IPO-linked representations. Its tokenised market expansion follows more than $45 billion in cumulative transaction volume and over 550,000 holders.

🪙 LBank opens subscriptions for Kalshi-linked pre-IPO tokens. The planned offering provides eligible users with tokenised economic exposure through third-party provider Paimon, without ownership rights in Kalshi. The pre-IPO subscription window runs from 29 October to 2 November with a total cap of 500,000 USDT.

🇬🇧 Zumo and Quantum Chain agree to develop quantum-resistant digital asset infrastructure. The companies have signed a memorandum of understanding to explore solutions using post-quantum cryptographic algorithms. The proposed infrastructure collaboration is aimed at regulated financial institutions and the UK digital assets sector.

🇬🇧 Bank of England proposes guidance on tokenised collateral. The central bank is consulting on how central counterparties should assess tokenised assets offered as clearing collateral. Its proposed supervisory guidance says eligible collateral may be tokenised under the existing framework if applicable risk and regulatory standards are met.

🇨🇳 Alipay denies authorising cryptocurrency trading through third-party platforms. The Chinese payments provider clarified that it has no partnership or technical integration with Peer, which introduced yuan-to-USDC transactions using Alipay transfers. Peer reported 107 transactions worth approximately $7,094 since August, while Alipay warned against unauthorised crypto transactions and associated account risks. 

🇺🇸 MoonPay relaunches Crypto Deposits as a universal deposits product. One integration lets users fund accounts with Apple Pay, Google Pay, cards, or crypto. It also offers direct connections to over 600 wallets and exchanges.

🌍 Polygon Labs expands Open Money Stack to Solana after adding Tron support. Businesses building on Solana can accept bank account funds and provide customer wallets. The service also supports transfers between Solana, Polygon, Ethereum and Tron.

STABLECOINS NEWS

🇧🇷 Unblock applies to Brazil's Central Bank for virtual asset broker authorization. The stablecoin payments firm filed on October 17 under the SPSAV transition regime. The application includes participation in the foreign exchange market.

PARTNERSHIPS

🇯🇵 SAT Japan partners with Triple-A to accept stablecoin payments for vehicle purchases. The Japanese automotive exporter will allow international customers to pay using USDT and USDC alongside existing payment methods. Through the stablecoin payments integration, Triple-A will handle processing, currency conversion, compliance and settlement, enabling SAT Japan to receive payments in US dollars without holding digital assets.

🇪🇺 Klarna expands Lands’ End checkout partnership to four European markets. Following a US rollout in May, Klarna’s options are now available on Lands’ End websites in the UK, Germany, Austria and France. The European checkout expansion is powered by Stripe and offers different payment schedules depending on the market.

🌏 Airtm and BVNK partner on wallet-native payments in emerging markets. The collaboration combines Airtm’s local distribution network with BVNK’s stablecoin payment infrastructure through Airtm Connect. The wallet-native payments partnership aims to link international payment flows with local digital wallets and commerce.

🇳🇱 Adyen rolls out Visa Payment Passkey through its Authenticate module. Eligible consumers can authenticate online payments using their device unlock method. Authenticate uses machine learning to pick which method will perform best.

🌏 Tencent and Visa broaden cooperation on cross-border and agentic payments. The companies have signed a memorandum of understanding covering travel payments, remittances and AI-assisted commerce. Their expanded cooperation framework includes exploring Visa Direct transfers into Weixin Pay and consumer-controlled transactions using Visa Intelligent Commerce.

🇯🇵 SBI Holdings and Cross River plan Japanese joint venture. The companies have signed a memorandum of understanding to explore a venture covering tokenised assets, cross-border payments and agentic commerce. The proposed Japan-based venture remains subject to definitive agreements and regulatory approvals, while SBI also plans an investment in CRB Group.

🌏 Pepperstone extends Aston Martin Formula One partnership. The trading provider will expand its team sponsorship, with Fernando Alonso becoming a global brand ambassador from 2027. The expanded Formula One agreement will feature additional branding activities, including a special helmet at the Mexico City Grand Prix.

🌎 STARTRADER begins second season as an NBA partner. The online trading broker is continuing its official partnership with the National Basketball Association, building on an agreement announced in January 2026. The second-season sponsorship update concerns marketing and audience engagement rather than a new financial product.

🇺🇸 Broadridge expands CQG multi-asset offering with Kalshi. The financial technology provider is adding Kalshi-related prediction market capabilities to its CQG trading offering. The CQG platform expansion extends the instruments available through its trading infrastructure.

💳 Vivid and Visa expand employee spending controls for businesses. The companies are working on company card capabilities intended to give businesses more oversight of staff expenditure. The employee spending collaboration focuses on controlling and managing corporate payments.

🇫🇮 Neonomics and Movitz Payments strengthen payee verification in Finland. Integrated into Nello Pay, the technology checks whether a recipient's name matches their bank account details, helping prevent payment errors and fraud. Already operational in Finland, the verification capability is set to expand to Sweden, Denmark and Norway in 2027.

🇧🇲 WalletConnect teams up with Penrose Partners to bring WalletConnect Pay to Bermuda merchants. Stellar wallet LOBSTR is already live with WalletConnect Pay, while Premier Tickets will become the first participating merchant in Bermuda, with payments expected to launch in Q2 2027.

DONEDEAL FUNDING NEWS

🇺🇸 Kalshi raises $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation. The round was co-led by Sequoia and Wellington, lifting the company's valuation from $22 billion just over five months earlier. Kalshi is expanding beyond prediction markets into perpetual futures covering cryptocurrencies, equity indexes and metals, positioning it to compete with established financial exchanges.

🇭🇰 PhotonPay raises $40M Series C, led by Blockchain Capital. The capital will scale its Financial OS, which connects stablecoin liquidity with fiat networks. PhotonPay reports $65B in annualized volume and over 200,000 business customers.

🇺🇸 Ibis secures $250 million credit facility from FalconX. The on-chain lending platform has also raised pre-seed financing from investors including FalconX and Anchorage Digital, without disclosing the equity amount. Its institutional lending facility is intended to support collateralised credit for digital asset businesses.

🇲🇾 Fingular secures $20 million facility to expand lending in Malaysia. The facility from Silverstreak will fund the FinTech group’s consumer and small-business lending activity in Malaysia. The new credit financing brings reported funding for its Malaysian lending operations to more than $50 million.

M&A

🇲🇽 Clip acquires Pulpos and appoints Debra Chrapaty to its board. Pulpos adds point of sale, inventory, invoicing and AI agents to Clip's payments. The integration aims to connect payments with daily business operations for merchants.

🇺🇸 Inkle acquires Finally’s bookkeeping business. The all-cash asset purchase brings approximately 100 Finally team members into Inkle, while existing bookkeeping clients will continue working with the same teams on Inkle’s platform. The acquisition was announced on October 28, with financial terms undisclosed.

AI DEVELOPMENTS

🇳🇱 Mollie introduces AI tools for financial workflows. The European payments provider is extending the use of AI within business finance operations, with a focus on simplifying workflows for merchants. Its AI financial workflow update concerns the automation of routine tasks within payment and financial management.

🇬🇧 Ecommpay launches Savi AI assistant for small businesses. The payments provider has introduced a chatbot to help merchants navigate platform features, integration questions and operational support. Its AI support assistant can guide users through documentation and common questions about payment processing.

🇰🇷 Samsung Financial selects four AI FinTech startups for commercial partnerships. Samsung Life Insurance, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, Samsung Card and Samsung Securities selected Crabs, Telepix, Innovat and Quantit through the 2026 C-Lab Outside programme. The startups were chosen from 395 applicants, with potential collaborations spanning AI-generated content, satellite-based insurance risk analysis, VAT refunds and AI-powered investment information. 

MOVERS & SHAKERS

🇬🇧 OpenTrade appoints former Swift chief executive Lazaro Campos as chairman. The stablecoin yield infrastructure provider has brought in Campos as it seeks to serve financial institutions and FinTech platforms. The new board appointment follows company-reported growth in assets and activity supporting stablecoin-based yield services.

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